The impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is not small. "The person in charge of a trailer and axle company in Zhejiang told the reporter of China Automobile News with a wry smile, "In the first half of this year, our order quantity decreased by about 50% compared with the same period last year. "According to the introduction, this component supplier has a capacity of about 10,000 axles, and about 80% of its products are sold abroad. The Middle East and Africa markets are the focus, mainly for the local after-sales market. He also said: "Our Some foreign customers predict that the epidemic will not end in a short period of time, so there is a tendency for surprise orders in the first half of this year. But even so, the total number of orders for the company this year has fallen. Moreover, the order cycle has become longer than ever. "

An oil pump manufacturer also suffered the same fate. The reporter learned that 85% of the parts supplier's orders are for export, and the export regions cover Southeast Asia, Central and South America, and North America. "In a normal year, our annual output is about 600,000 sets. Compared with the same period last year, this year should be cut in half." The person in charge of this oil pump company told reporters, "Some users do not place orders, some The total amount of purchases has been reduced. In addition, for some orders in overseas markets, we ship them within the normal time, but the delivery time is much slower than usual, and we mostly use the FOB (free on board) method. The other party cannot receive the goods, we return The payment will be affected. If the other party cannot receive the goods, it will also incur additional storage costs."

"We basically develop with our own funds. At most, this year's outlook is not good and we have a tight life for a year." A person in charge of a Zhejiang parts and components company told reporters, "However, some companies are burdened by certain factors in the development process. The debts of China, especially those companies that mainly rely on foreign trade orders, once the orders decline, funds will be tight."

The situation reported by the above-mentioned suppliers is exactly the challenge currently faced by some small and micro auto parts enterprises. In fact, even some powerful enterprises above the designated size are under considerable pressure. After completing a series of acquisitions of Grammer in Germany in 2019, Jifeng has strengthened its research and development capabilities, and realized a global network layout of production, sales, and research and development, becoming a cross-border passenger car and commercial vehicle field. The comprehensive capabilities of supporting low, medium and high-end interior components for domestic and foreign vehicle enterprises. However, Jifeng shares has not yet further developed its ambitions, and its development rhythm has been disrupted by the sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic.

According to disclosures, Grammer, a subsidiary of Jifeng Holdings, is affected by the shrinking demand in the automotive industry and the new crown pneumonia epidemic. In the first quarter of 2020, operating income and profits have fallen sharply, and the annual operating income and profits are not optimistic. Jifeng's operating income, profit and full-year performance in the first quarter of 2020 will experience a certain degree of decline due to Grammer's influence. In response to the announcement of the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s attention, Jifeng said that due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, customer demand has decreased, and Grammer’s operating income in the first quarter of this year has fallen by 15% year-on-year. Therefore, the company has converted short-term loans to Long-term borrowing and other methods to reduce the impact.

Coincidentally, in the quarterly report of the first quarter of this year, Shenglong also pointed out: “Due to the continued impact of the overseas new crown epidemic, the sales of the company’s major overseas customers in the second quarter of 2020 will continue to decline. In summary, the company predicts the beginning of the year to the end of the next reporting period. The cumulative net profit may be a loss."

Foreign epidemics have led to a general decline in parts exports

"The epidemic has brought a greater impact on the import and export of China's automobile industry. We can roughly divide the time period. When the domestic epidemic situation was severe in the first quarter of this year, the problems that companies generally encountered were insufficient production and the import of some key components. Not smooth. Now, the situation has undergone new changes. At present, the factor leading to the decline in China’s auto parts exports is the development of foreign epidemics.” Sun Xiaohong, Secretary General of the Automobile Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, introduced, “From the statistics of the General Administration of Customs According to the data, from January to May this year, China's auto parts export value dropped by 17%. According to our analysis, China's auto parts key parts export value dropped by about 7.8% year-on-year from January to April this year, of which the chassis dropped 50%, engines decreased by 18.8% (diesel engines decreased by 34.6%); in terms of parts and accessories, in terms of aluminum wheels, the export value dropped by about 22.2% year-on-year."

"The export orders of many companies began to decline sharply in May this year, and some export orders in May and June were even zero. This wave of impact can be described as very huge." Wang Hong, secretary general of Ningbo Auto Parts Industry Association, told The reporter said, "However, looking at the overall situation of auto parts enterprises in Ningbo, the second quarter has recovered to a certain extent compared with the first quarter. Compared with the same period last year, the data in the first quarter of this year fell by 20% to 25%. ."

"From the perspective of exporting countries and regions and the proportion of total exports, the United States, Japan, Mexico, Germany, South Korea, Russia, India, Thailand, France, and Brazil are the top ten major markets. The performance of these markets varies. Similarly, the United States, as the largest export destination of China’s auto parts, has dropped from about 30% of total exports to 24%, but it is still our largest market. From January to April this year, China’s key parts The export value of parts and accessories dropped by 21.7% year-on-year, 19% for the Japanese market, and 11.1% for the German market. Among the major markets, only South Korea saw a certain increase, with a year-on-year increase of about 10.2%." Sun Xiaohong said, " China’s auto parts exports are still dominated by the OEM supporting market, which determines that they will carry out business with the pace of resumption of production and production of vehicle companies in the export destination country, so the export orders of some companies have dropped significantly."

Dr. Jan Dannenberg, an expert from the German Berylls Strategy Advisors, told the reporter: “The proportion of local supporting parts for Chinese auto products is very high, at about 70%, and some models even reach 95%. However, European automakers have zero exposure to China The procurement volume of component companies is generally small, mainly'B-parts' and'C-parts'. B-parts are parts of customized models or legacy parts of previous models. They are not complex or important functional products, just simple For R&D, such as the plastic cover on the trunk, chassis and engine, the price of a single part is mostly less than 5 euros. C-parts are common parts without a specific model, usually multi-source procurement, common include screws, cable connectors The price is much lower. More commonly, German Tier 1 suppliers purchase parts from Chinese companies and integrate them into their own product systems. Chinese companies need to import high-tech components that require specific research and development. Components, such as ECU, engine and chassis control systems and sensors."

The recovery of overseas orders is temporarily unpredictable

"According to our analysis, the European and North American markets are unlikely to recover quickly, and consumer confidence continues to decline. This is mainly due to the reduction in the number of jobs and the layoffs of some companies, which has reduced demand by billions of euros. And at present, it is difficult to say how long such a decline will be over." Jan Dannenberg believes, "However, it is certain that the market recovery must be based on the recovery of consumer confidence and market demand growth." Shenzhen City Yang Hong, president of Hangsheng Electronics Co., Ltd., told reporters that in regions with better epidemic control such as Europe and Japan, orders are unlikely to drop sharply in the future and will gradually return to normal levels.

"I think that some demand will be released later, that is, the epidemic will cause orders to shift back. Restorative growth is hopeful, but retaliatory rebound is unlikely to happen. The future order recovery situation will ultimately require Look at the overall situation of epidemic prevention and control and economic operations in various countries. For example, the current resumption of work in the United States is a bit of a state of'risking death'. It is difficult to tell what will happen in the future, and countries where the epidemic is controlled should follow the socio-economic situation. The direction of gradual recovery and continuous increase of orders.” Wang Hong said, “but the point to be reminded is that we cannot judge how long this situation will last, when the overseas epidemic will be effectively controlled and whether the epidemic will repeat. "

Sun Xiaohong told reporters: "There may be retaliatory growth in demand, but it may not be particularly obvious. The global spread of the epidemic has developed to the present and for a period of time in the future. China's auto parts exports are under various pressures and overlap between old and new. One is Since President Trump took office, he has frequently used "301 investigations" to increase tariffs. Second, there are uncertainties in global epidemic prevention and control. Of course, everyone has a certain degree of psychological preparation for this. Third, some European and American countries have begun. Increasing restrictions on investment and acquisitions (companies from other countries) from China. Fourth, some politicians in Europe and the United States advocate the so-called'return of manufacturing industries'." He said: "We must have a correct understanding of these, and some of them need to be dealt with seriously. For example, the pressure of trade friction is more prominent under the epidemic; some are more like "wishful thinking". For example, the return of manufacturing industry may only happen to a very small number of foreign companies that do not do well in China." In Sun Xiaohong's view, the whole year of 2020 , China’s auto parts export situation is still difficult to predict. It may be more accurate to make a judgment in the middle and late third quarter.

Disperse risks and make up for losses

"Many parts and components companies have both domestic and international businesses. The development of their domestic market is not affected much, and the impact is still on the part of global procurement. I suggest that such companies should balance the proportion of exports and domestic businesses. Don’t put eggs in a basket. This is not to say that you don’t want to make foreign trade orders, but to balance orders in different markets such as domestic, Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea, and spread the crisis as much as possible, because of the epidemic prevention and control efforts in different countries Different, the degree of social and economic recovery is also different." Wang Hong said that the current situation in North America, represented by the United States, has not been effectively controlled. If the previous customers of auto parts companies are concentrated in the North American market, they will undoubtedly be greatly affected; In other words, Japan, which has better prevention and control of the epidemic, has recovered faster in demand, while the European market represented by Germany is between the two. He said: "The current experience of an enterprise has a very large relationship with the foreign trade order structure formed in the development process. If the order concentration in a certain country or region is too high, the probability of being impacted will be greater; With multiple customers and a comprehensive layout in different overseas markets, we can deal with this crisis more calmly."

"Faced with the current market situation, vehicle companies and Tier 1 component suppliers will strengthen risk management and control. At present, although there may be a certain degree of price increase, the reliability and default of the existing European car companies supply chain Risks are all within the controllable range. Risk control has become more and more important, but this is not enough to cause the overall manufacturing industry to'return'.” Jan Dannenberg believes, “In this regard, Chinese auto parts companies should focus on cost control in the short term. In the long run, we must pay attention to user feedback and product profit margins, so as to ensure survival and well-being."

In Sun Xiaohong's view, "You beat you, I beat mine" is a strategic choice: "First of all, we must not be arrogant, we must stabilize the market. Many of our export businesses target the OEM market. There is a logic behind this. If you lose your OEM supporting qualifications, it will be even more difficult to enter this system, and many competitors are coveting this market. Therefore, withstand the pressure and stay in the supporting system. Status is the first step. Secondly, we must strengthen ourselves as soon as possible. When facing the measures imposed by the Chinese government on tariffs on Chinese parts and components companies, some multinational car companies try to avoid them by finding alternative suppliers, but they are struggling to find It was later discovered that the products of Chinese companies are irreplaceable in terms of quality and cost. Therefore, they will actively lobby to help Chinese auto parts obtain import tax exemptions." He said that the stronger the company itself, the easier it is to unite. Importers get support to get out of trouble. Sun Xiaohong emphasized: “Some domestic companies have launched an international layout very early. Although they may face difficulties at present, do not lose confidence because of the impact of the epidemic.”

"We suggest that companies that have previously focused on foreign trade should not be afraid of difficulties and must pay attention to the development of the domestic market." Fang Xi, chairman and secretary-general of the Zhejiang Automobile Industry Association, suggested that those who had previously focused their business overseas for various reasons Companies in the market should put survival first in the current extraordinary period. “The problem now lies in the cliff-like decline in overseas demand. It is difficult to overcome the crisis by reducing costs and sticking hard. The situation of a Ningbo auto parts company is It can explain the problem. Most of this supplier’s revenue comes from orders in overseas markets, but in the case of sluggish external demand, it is determined to open up the domestic market. Due to its excellent product quality, after the implementation of the transformation, its ranking in the domestic market Ranked in the top three, the prospects are very optimistic, and it is expected that this year's performance can still achieve about 20% growth."

The person in charge of the aforementioned oil pump company told reporters: “We have made up for the loss of overseas export orders through the following directions. On the one hand, we have more in-depth cooperation with existing domestic customers, and on the other hand, we will increase the development of new domestic The strength of the customer; in addition, for the idle capacity, we will also look for some other orders that meet our machining capabilities to use."

In addition to self-rescue by enterprises, local governments are also taking active actions. "The government is also helping us find ways. Recently, many e-commerce platforms have been developed to help display, as well as online conferences. I think these can also play a positive role." The person in charge of a gear processing company told reporters Introduced.