Is it the "catfish" that will complete its mission after the ship arrives at the port? Or the carp that swims to the "Longmen", about to become a dragon? For the new car-building forces, the river of the new energy vehicle market is becoming more and more turbulent, and there is not much time left for them to grow slowly and complete their transformation, and some have been "stranded" by the river. For example, on June 13, Huang Ximing, founder and general manager of Bojun Automobile, issued an open letter stating that Bojun Automobile is currently experiencing serious operating difficulties, causing actual losses and disadvantages to the development of employees, shareholders, suppliers, local governments, and partners. Affected, from June 15th, Bojun Automobile officially began to wait for all staff.

Since the beginning of this year, the living environment of the new car-building forces has been particularly difficult. The reporter noticed in the observation of the past six months that compared with the rumors of salary arrears, layoffs, production suspension and land sales exposed in the previous two years, the new car-building forces have The content that was exposed was even more "miserable", and the title was net of words such as suspension, "thunderstorm", broken capital chain and "selling one's body". When products are delayed in delivery, the capital market is no longer enthusiastic, and competitors are "aggressive", how long can the window for new car-building forces open? Who will survive and successfully gain a foothold in the market?

Along the way

 Polarization becomes more obvious

Two or three years ago, car manufacturing became a new investment trend and hot spot. For a time, nearly 100 new car manufacturers, large and small, emerged in China. In 2018, the largest annual production capacity planned by more than 70 new car manufacturers in China Nearly 10 million vehicles. It is a pity that what is placed in front of thousands of troops is not the wide Yangtze River, letting it sail far, but the narrow single-plank bridge. If you don't cross the bridge first, you may face the danger of falling.

Today, the differentiation between new car-making forces has intensified. Among more than a dozen companies that have achieved mass production and delivery, Weilai Automobile, Xiaopeng Automobile, Weimar Automobile, Ideal Automobile and Hezhong New Energy are leading the way Some have already launched the second product, monthly sales are slowly rising, and new capital is constantly added to provide support and vitality for the development of the enterprise; the second echelon is mainly zero running, Ai Chi, Yundu, Xinte, etc. These brands have been delivered, but the market sales are not high. Although they are lagging behind the first echelon, there are still some problems in business operations, financing, and products. However, there are not too many negative news at present, as long as you work hard to run a few steps , There is still the possibility of being able to keep up; the last ones are Qiantu, Byton, Singularity, Sailin and Ranger Motors, etc. Standing in front of them is a collection of qualifications, capital, products and market environment It is equivalent to a huge "blocker". Some companies are already in trouble and will eventually face the fate of bankruptcy and liquidation. Some companies have not even completed the prototype car, and have long lost their voice in the industry.

"The past two years have been a critical period for new car-building forces to face severe challenges." Liu Zongwei, an associate researcher at the Institute of Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy, Tsinghua University, once said bluntly in an interview with a reporter from China Automobile News, "As the pressure of competition continues to increase. It is expected that the polarization of new car-making forces will become increasingly obvious, and companies that cannot gain a foothold and expand their advantages during this period will gradually be eliminated by the market."

Indeed, more and more "naked swimmers" are emerging, almost reaching the frequency of one case in January: At the beginning of this year, the shareholders of Wulong Electric Vehicle and the board of directors were unable to reach an agreement on the committee members to implement the bankruptcy liquidation. After more than two months of disputes, in the face of the inevitable conclusion of the winding-up of Wulong Electric Vehicles, some of the assets of Yangtze River Motors may also be included in the scope of liquidation and be seriously affected; at the end of February, the founding core team of Tianji Motors One of the members, Xiang Dongping, resigned from the position of director and chief marketing officer (CMO) of Skyrim Motor due to personal reasons. The news also revealed that "the ratio was about 10%" of the company-wide layoffs; in March, several internal employees of Qiantu Motor said , After repeatedly adjusting the salary payment time that has been in arrears for several months, only half a month’s salary was received. Just a few days ago, the parent company of Qiantu Automobile Beijing Great Wall Huaguan announced the latest resignation settlement agreement, allowing employees to self Decide whether to take the money and leave or stay in the company to wait for the salary...

Win or lose money

Can you live well with more money?

Lu Qun, chairman of Qiantu Motor, once publicly stated that if a new car company fails, it is definitely not a problem of funding. According to him, Qiantu Automobile spent less than 3 billion yuan in investment to establish a vehicle factory, a battery box factory, a carbon fiber company, and a joint venture light alloy company, and achieved the sales of the first model, and several other models. Under development, this does reflect the extraordinary efficiency of capital use. But the skinny reality is that now, due to financing difficulties, Qiantu Motor not only defaults on employees' wages, but also some suppliers have not settled the payment. Li Xiang, CEO of Ideal Auto, said rudely that among hundreds of new car companies, they have never defaulted on employee wages and supplier payments, and it is estimated that no more than five can do so.

As of today, how much money are in the pockets of the new carmakers?

According to incomplete statistics, Weilai Automobile ranked first in the total amount of financing, about 54.3 billion yuan. Weilai Automobile is also the only new power company that has recently announced a successful financing. In the first quarter of this year, Weilai Automobile received a total of 435 million U.S. dollars (about 3 billion yuan) in financing from four financial investors. In order to further expand the "pocket", Weilai Automobile did not hesitate to move its headquarters to Hefei, Anhui. The Hefei Municipal Government signed a strategic investment agreement and exchanged 24.1% of its equity for 7 billion yuan.

However, money does not necessarily lead to a good life. Singularity cars are the best example. Public information shows that since 2015, Singularity Auto has conducted 10 equity financings. Although the specific financing amount has not been disclosed in detail, according to the announcement issued by its fifth largest shareholder Bo Yong Zhidong in 2019 when it transferred all the shares held by it. According to the tender announcement, the total financing amount of Singularity Automobile at that time has exceeded 17 billion yuan. In terms of this figure alone, it has surpassed 99% of the new car-making forces, and the total amount of financing is second only to NIO. However, Singularity Motors has no mass-produced products so far, and the "inaction" in the market has affected the financial situation of Singularity Motors. Recently, Singularity Motors has been exposed to several news related to the financial situation. For example, Qixinbao showed that starting from May 28, Singularity Motor’s parent company Zhiche Youxing Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. became the person to be executed. , The amount of equity of approximately 87.03 million yuan was frozen and one of the two major shareholders of Anhui Singularity Intelligent New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd.-Tongling Xinrong Copper-based New Material Industry Development Fund (Limited Partnership) officially withdrew.

It can be seen from the withdrawal of shareholders of Singularity Auto that with the intensification of the reshuffle of new car-making forces, the capital market is becoming more and more rational and calm, especially the local government that used to be an important support for the new forces. After that, I am afraid that it will become more cautious and conservative. Although Green Chi Auto may not be the last new power company to be "covered" by state-owned assets, there will definitely be fewer and fewer pure "receivers".

According to the data of professional financial institution PitchBook, in 2018, the total financing of China's new car companies reached 54.5 billion yuan. In 2019, the total financing of China's new car companies exceeded 26.8 billion yuan, and the scale of financing has shrunk significantly. "Since last year, the financing of new car manufacturers has been very poor. The capital market now favors them far less than they did 5 years ago. I have been in the investment industry for more than 15 years. Before this, most of the new car companies that the team invested in had nothing to lose. Returned.” A few days ago, a senior private equity investor of a national comprehensive securities company said in an interview with the media.

Product is king

Qualification is not the most important

When NIO launched the ES8, some industry insiders questioned: product delivery is too fast and problems are prone to occur, and the subsequent spontaneous combustion incidents have made them believe in this view. But the fact is that the later the delivery time, the longer it will take for the new power companies to complete the delivery target of 10,000 vehicles. From June 30 to November 27, 2018, it took NIO 4 months and 27 days to achieve the 10,000th ES8 roll-off; delivery started on September 28, 2018, to March 7, 2019 It took 5 months and 7 days for Weimar Motors to roll the 10,000th EX5 off the assembly line on December 12, 2018, and it took 6 months and 8 days for Xiaopeng Motors to break through the line of 10,000 vehicles. The pass. Although Xiaopeng Motor’s chairman He Xiaopeng’s explanation is: “I don’t want to pursue fast-paced, because too fast is easy to make mistakes.” But it is undeniable that one of the important reasons for this phenomenon is that the current new energy vehicle market is limited. And the competition is getting fiercer.

As Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said: "No car manufacturer can achieve long-term development without the support of products and the market. For new car manufacturers, only continuous improvement of product and brand market competition In order to survive the current fierce competition, some car companies that have not achieved mass production must have products that can be obtained. If they are separated from products, they will only talk about models and services, and they will inevitably be eliminated by the market."

Against this background, the extremely valuable "production qualifications" in the eyes of many new carmakers have become increasingly irrelevant. Among the four new car-making forces with the most product sales at present, two have chosen OEM production, but their market position has become increasingly stable. On the contrary, some new power companies that have obtained qualifications and built factories early have not seen any improvement. Take the previous car as an example, it accurately stepped on the pace of the development of the new energy vehicle market. After completing the preparation process from the establishment of the company, the establishment of the factory to the acquisition of qualifications, research and development, and the product launch, the first product, the future k50, failed. As a result, it fell short, and finally reached the point where it needed some employees to use their personal information to apply for credit loans to the company in order to pay wages.

It is worth mentioning that the later the product delivery time, the fewer opportunities. This rule is suitable for most new car-building forces, with the exception of ideal cars that do not follow the pure electric route. On June 16 this year, Ideal ONE achieved the sales of its 10,000th product. Since the official delivery in December 2019, Ideal Car has spent six and a half months. If you exclude the Spring Festival holiday and the special period of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the actual The time it takes may be shorter than that of Weimar Motors and Xiaopeng Motors. The market performance of Ideal Auto also proves that only products that meet market trends and meet consumer needs can better help enterprises achieve rapid development.

Sales win

The market is the last word

While observing the financing situation of new car-making forces, the reporter discovered an interesting phenomenon. Except for Singularity cars that "do not take the usual path," those with a total financing amount of more than 10 billion yuan happen to be the most current cumulative sales ranking. Of several new car companies. This fully shows that even if they don’t rely on “selling cars” to make money at the moment, new car manufacturers must have better market sales in order to get more financial support and promote the next development of the company.

At present, from the perspective of market sales alone, with the exception of Weilai Automobile sitting firmly on the throne, the front row team is slowly changing. Before 2020, the leading "three swordsmen" of new domestic car-making forces were Weilai, Weimar and Xiaopeng, but the ideal ONE was officially listed at the end of last year. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the ideal car Cumulative sales reached 7,666 vehicles, surpassing Weimar and Xiaopeng, ranking second. Hezhong New Energy is also catching up. The cumulative sales volume in the first five months of this year reached 3,669 units, which is less than 1,000 units less than the fourth-ranked Xiaopeng Motors. The gap may be further narrowed.

Liu Zongwei pointed out that with the deepening of the industrialization process and the increase in sales, the problems encountered by new forces in car-making will increase exponentially. On the one hand, large-scale production puts forward higher requirements for the comprehensive guarantee capabilities of product quality, sales and service, which are often lacking in new car-building forces with limited experience; on the other hand, new car-making forces must strive to cultivate Features new selling points of products and new brand connotations. "Faced with the unprecedented changes in the overall restructuring of the industry, the new car-making forces should persist in focusing on the main business and have sufficient psychological expectations for the long-term and tortuous nature of the development of new technologies, and soberly judge the current competitive situation." Liu Zongwei It is suggested that the new forces of car building must be "being upright and surprisingly", and boldly innovate on the basis of fully respecting the basic laws of the automotive industry and steadily doing a good job in research and development, procurement, production, sales, service, and quality and cost. It even launched revolutionary new solutions to try to lead the future evolution of the industry.

New car-building forces are indeed seeking breakthroughs from different directions: Weilai Automobile is considering the second-hand car business, providing protection for Weilai second-hand cars, and solving the "pain points" of low residual value of new energy second-hand cars; online car-hailing has also become Many new car-making forces are "competitive places". Last year, Xinte Motor's travel brand "Xindian Travel" obtained a national online car-hailing online operating license. Xiaopeng Motors announced the online car-hailing brand "Youpeng Travel" "For trial operation in Guangzhou, Zhejiang Konos Data Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Weimar Motors, also changed its business scope and added "online car-hailing business services."

Challenges

We should also strengthen our confidence

According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in May this year, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles were 84,000 and 82,000, down 25.8% and 23.5% respectively. From January to May, the total production and sales of new energy vehicles were 295,000 and 82,000. 289,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 39.7% and 38.7%, respectively. The production and sales of pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles all declined year-on-year to varying degrees, with a decrease of more than 35%. The China Automobile Association predicts that the sales of new energy vehicles this year will be about 1.1 million. When the tide of the new energy vehicle market quickly recedes, how many new car-building forces can avoid stranding?

There is another challenge that cannot be ignored comes from foreign companies. According to the latest data released by the China Automobile Association, Tesla’s monthly sales volume in May was 11095, surpassing the total of Weilai Automobile in the first five months. The cumulative sales from January to May of this year reached 30,800, which is better than all others. The total number of new power enterprises is even more. "According to the production capacity plan, Tesla's sales this year may be around 100,000." Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, said. You must know that 100,000 vehicles are the annual sales target that many new car manufacturers have claimed to achieve, but no one has reached it so far. And Tesla has great hopes for the first year after its localization. Reached.

Liu Zongwei uses "more monks and less porridge" to describe the situation of the new energy vehicle market in the future: "Driven by the'double points' policy, the Chinese auto companies will collectively develop new energy vehicles. In the next few years, there will be many traditions including international giants. Car companies will launch a large number of electric vehicle products, which will put unprecedented pressure on new power companies."

However, even with many challenges, there is still hope. As An Qingheng, director of the China Automotive Industry Advisory Committee, said: “Tesla has also experienced many problems such as continuous product quality problems, orders that cannot be delivered on time, losses, etc., but now it has survived. It’s an enlightenment. It’s not that there is no chance. There is still hope. It’s hard to say who wins and who loses.” An Qingheng believes that we must have confidence in the development of emerging industries and new enterprises. ,Stick to it.