Tang Fan (pseudonym) is an engineer at a domestic automobile engine company. After resuming work and production this year, he felt the pressure increased sharply. What the hell does this happen?

Last year, this engine company launched a brand new engine product. Thanks to the application of many advanced patented technologies, it has increased the injection pressure and reduced the friction loss, which has been praised by many industry experts; moreover, because of its high reliability, strong power, It has a wide range of applications and has won many orders, becoming the company's star of hope. Due to the sudden outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic at the beginning of the year, the company slowed down its original production rhythm. After the domestic epidemic prevention and control achieved major phased results, the new engine products that should continue to shine are also restricted by the use of imported parts. Unable to supply normally.

On June 8, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned at the epidemic briefing that the global situation of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is deteriorating. In 9 of the past 10 days, countries have reported more than 100,000 new confirmed cases to the organization. . For the auto parts supply chain, the global new crown pneumonia epidemic is still the sword of Damocles hanging over the head.

Insufficient supply and uncertain delivery time, domestic companies are prepared

"The high-pressure oil pump we use is the product of a world-renowned first-class auto parts supplier. It has mature technology and good performance. It is produced by the company's Italian factory." Tang Fan told the "China Automobile News" reporter that such a matching zero Components are usually included in the product brochures and promoted by companies, but now they have become the source of their troubles. He said: “Affected by the epidemic, Italy has only partially resumed work and production. For our factory that produces high-pressure oil pumps, only one of the four production lines has been restored. The biggest impact on us in the short term is that the delivery date of parts cannot be determined. Insufficient supply. The chain reaction triggered by this has changed the original clear delivery rhythm."

“The spread of the epidemic on a global scale has indeed caused problems for many domestic companies that rely on imported auto parts. What I have learned is that many companies have certain safety stocks that can last for a period of time, but if they continue, they may face problems. A severe challenge." Shen Bin, director of the Technical and Economic Consulting Department of China Automotive Research Institute, introduced to reporters.

“The risk of supply interruption exists objectively, and the extent to which the supply of imported parts resumes depends on the control of the foreign epidemic.” said Li Shengqi, secretary general of the China Automobile Automatic Transmission Innovation Alliance and secretary general of the China-Europe Association Gear Transmission Industry Branch. “Key components and core The situation in the field of components is different. When some international component giants are deploying in China, they have built core component production lines to achieve the effect of improving response speed and reducing costs. With the domestic epidemic under control, these products have basically Normal supply is restored. However, there are still some core components that need to be supplied by overseas factories. With the digestion of inventory and the development of the epidemic, there is a risk of outage."

"Whether the supply of imported auto parts can be restored is highly related to the degree of epidemic control. My personal judgment is that the suppliers in Japan and South Korea are the fastest, followed by European companies led by Germany. The most variable is the supply from North America led by the United States. Business.” said Wang Hong, secretary general of Ningbo Auto Parts Industry Association.

In order to overcome such difficulties, many domestic parts companies have taken actions in advance to deal with them. It is reported that Tang Fan's company has a part of its inventory from years ago, and it can handle it at least for a while. The relevant person in charge of the Lidar company Saiteng Juchuang introduced: "We made the'worst-case scenario' prediction for the development of the epidemic before the Spring Festival, and made the most adequate preparations for problems in the supply chain, production, and logistics. , Has a proper B plan, so the impact is very small. The company’s lidar product supply capacity has been fully restored as early as the end of March this year." He also told reporters that there are sufficient options for the supply of core components At the same time, the localization of Sagitar's products is relatively high, so the price and supply of components are not affected. Wanan Technology is similar to "digging deep holes and accumulating grain". "The company's management made a strategic plan ahead of time. In fact, this work has already started when the Sino-US trade friction started." A related person from Wanan Technology said.

In addition to uncertain delivery dates for imported key components, there is also a problem-the possibility of price fluctuations. Prior to this, there have been many reports that auto parts are facing general price increases. “Domestic companies mostly use CIF quotations when purchasing imported parts and components. Under the influence of the epidemic, the logistics of many core parts has changed from more economical sea transportation to more time-sensitive air transportation." Wang Hong told reporters , "Due to changes in transportation methods, even if foreign companies keep product prices unchanged, procurement costs are facing greater pressure to increase."

"Individual companies have also moved to raise prices, but they have not yet been implemented. The probability of a substantial increase in parts and components as a whole is unlikely." Li Shengqi said, "Even if there are some parts and components, the downward transmission is normal." Shen Bin also believes: "The possibility of price fluctuations in core components is unlikely. Their largest market is China. If foreign companies take this opportunity to increase prices, although profits may increase in the short term, there is also a risk of customer loss in the long run."

Some products rely on imports, highlighting the severe "stuck neck" situation

Earlier, Changan Automobile executives said in an interview with CCTV that after sorting out their supply chain, they found that more than 3,000 parts and components involving more than 100 suppliers were produced in overseas markets, covering 23 countries and regions, and Part of the epidemic is more serious, and the complexity and difficulty of ensuring the smoothness of this part of the supply chain far exceeds the domestic situation.

The biggest impact of overseas epidemics on domestic companies is those core components that cannot be bought. If the previous “stuck neck” situation in my country's auto industry has not been taken seriously, the global spread of the epidemic is enough to make people feel the situation is unprecedentedly severe. Once the delivery date of core components is uncertain, enterprises cannot find alternatives in China, and the safety of the industrial chain is directly affected. "It is necessary to analyze the impact of domestic companies on the supply of core components in different categories, and the differences are quite large in different fields." Shen Bin told reporters, "After so many years of development, the main core components of engines, transmissions, and axles , Domestic companies can provide supporting supplies. However, some products involved in automotive electronic systems, such as automatic transmission control modules and most chip components, we rely on imports to a large extent." Wang Hong said: "Electrical control We still have a very high degree of dependence on foreign countries for components such as chips and chips."

"The hydraulic torque converter, solenoid valves, sensors, some high-precision, high-speed, low-noise bearings (ball bearings and needle bearings) in automatic transmissions, as well as steel belts in CVT, friction materials in synchronizers in DCT, The dual-clutch module and TCU, we are controlled by others to a certain extent." Li Shengqi said bluntly, "There are also some invisible aspects that are "stucked in the neck", such as the calibration ability of the whole vehicle. We actually compare it. Many companies rely on foreign teams. Some models are upgraded on the original basis and are relatively easy to solve. However, the development of new models will be difficult. Similar to this is the development of functional safety, which we have invested previously Not much energy."

"European and American companies are leading the way in the fields of engine and control systems, high-end transmissions, electronic injection systems, exhaust system carriers, computing platforms, chips, automatic driving, development tools, etc.; Japanese and Korean companies are leading the way in high-end transmissions, liquid crystal devices, electronic and electrical, There are obvious advantages in the fields of integrated circuits and thermal systems." Du Daofeng, director of the Parts Department of the China Automobile Manufacturers Association, told reporters.

Self-replacement puts on the agenda, persisting hard work will eventually gain

"This epidemic has a great impact on parts and components and product production, and it also promotes changes in our supply chain. In the long run, it will make the company's internal mechanisms more flexible and promote the company's own supply assurance and quality control capabilities. "Tang Fan told reporters that his company has started the domestic substitution of parts and components and accelerated the verification process. However, before switching to domestically produced parts, the output of new engines may not reach the expected target. "It is also possible to reduce by about 20% from now." He said, "The difficulty lies in the company's strict verification and approval of local suppliers in order to ensure product quality and brand image."

"Autonomous substitution is a real proposition." Shen Bin said, "For example, Tesla, which has recently become a hot newcomer, is even more aggressive in localization than some joint ventures. Car companies are chasing profits. The economic matching radius of parts and components is certain. Local parts suppliers provide supporting facilities for foreign-funded enterprises, which will help them improve their technology and product levels, thereby further accumulating and laying a solid foundation for independent substitution."

"Autonomous substitution is a relatively complicated process. First, the initiative is in the hands of vehicle companies and first-tier suppliers. Secondly, the unique IATF16949 management system in the automotive industry determines that the parts of vehicle companies cannot be'random'. Being replaced. Even if you want to find a substitute, it takes a certain amount of time.” Wang Hong said, “We still lack a voice in foreign-funded enterprises. Therefore, Great Wall, Geely, and Chery should be the first to achieve breakthroughs in independent substitution. Self-owned brand car companies. Self-owned brands have also experienced the taste of being restrained in the growth process, and may be more likely to accept independent suppliers."

"A certain vehicle company has limited supply due to the impact of the epidemic on imported parts. The other party reported this to us. In fact, there are companies in Ningbo that can provide products of the same quality. Vehicle companies are also surprised. They have been I am using imported parts, and I neither understand nor believe that domestic products can be substituted. After our recommendation, the parts produced by domestic suppliers have achieved independent substitution." The Ningbo Auto Parts Industry Association, where Wang Hong is located, continues to serve the local government. , Enterprises make suggestions and act as think tanks, "Autonomous substitution is a long process, and the government must play an active role in this process."

“Independent substitution still requires government to take the lead and provide certain support. For example, companies have to spend a lot of manpower, material resources and time in the process of R&D and production, and the converted unit price will be slightly higher than that of foreign counterparts. However, foreign companies enter the market earlier because of their products. , Sometimes use existing advantages to reduce prices and other measures to maintain share.” Shen Bin said, “Domestic companies have accumulated in many technical fields, previously lacking matching opportunities, should now vigorously expand the market. IGBT chips are likely to be better Autonomous replacement will be completed early, and intelligent networked auto parts including lidar are also breakthroughs."

It is understood that before 2016, my country's lidar was still very dependent on imports, but in the past few years, Chinese companies represented by Sagitar have risen rapidly. At present, most autonomous driving companies have replaced imported products with domestic lidar. In March of this year, Nagoya University and TierIV released 12 lidar evaluation reports for many well-known companies around the world. The products of Chinese companies such as Sagitar Jacquard have performed well, and many performance indicators have reached or even surpassed overseas manufacturers. In addition, Sagitar Juchuang took the lead in mass production of 128-line lidar RS-Ruby in the world. After being tested by a number of head driverless companies, it has won unanimous praise and a large number of orders.

"Thanks to the country's effective prevention and control of the epidemic and the full preparation of the company itself, during the epidemic, our product supply was stable, and the advantages of the localization of lidar under the epidemic were fully reflected." The relevant person in charge of Sagitar said.

Interview: Li Shengqi, Secretary-General of China Automotive Automatic Transmission Innovation Alliance and Secretary-General of China-Europe Association Gear Transmission Industry Branch: The time for independent substitution

"Discussing the topic of independent substitution under such a relatively special background is of great significance. Specific to the subdivision of automotive automatic transmissions, I think independent substitution has four favorable conditions." China Automotive Automatic Transmission Innovation Alliance, China-Europe Association Gear Transmission Li Shengqi, secretary-general of the industry branch, pointed out in an exclusive interview with a reporter from China Automobile News that first, consumption upgrades have promoted vehicles equipped with automatic transmissions to enter a period of sustained and rapid growth; second, independent vehicle companies have made considerable progress in their technical quality and market The market share is at a high level of about 40%, entering a critical period for maintaining stability and re-growth; third, breakthroughs have been made in the core technology of autonomous automatic transmission assembly, and assembly products have entered the market with rapid growth. China's automobile industry has ushered in an extremely rare history. Development opportunities have objectively created conditions for higher-quality, practical and close cooperation across the entire automotive industry chain in China; fourth, the industry has cultivated a team of technical talents in mechanical, electrical, hydraulic, control and system integration.

So, how exactly should the road of independent substitution go? Li Shengqi believes that there are three stages. The first stage is self-developed by reference. The main task of the industry is to pay attention to the transmission assembly. Through international and domestic cooperation, the main method is to learn from the advanced achievements and strive to achieve breakthroughs in the core technology of the assembly and its market. Components and core components are mainly "borrowed" from imported products, and independent key components and core components companies have begun research and development. We have completed the set goals of this stage; we are currently in the second stage of coexistence of independent substitution and independent re-innovation. At this time, the industry has an understanding of key components and core components and their boundary conditions, and can make a certain degree of innovation based on the development requirements of the entire vehicle and its previous accumulation. Even Japan and South Korea, developed countries in the automotive industry, have come from this stage step by step, and we may still need 3 to 5 years at this stage. The third stage is self-reliance. The new crown pneumonia epidemic is an external rigid constraint that cannot be changed. Prior to this, regardless of the documents issued by the ministries and commissions, industry calls, and corporate calls, everyone actually did not have much sense of urgency and crisis, and failed to form an industry consensus. Therefore, regardless of whether the "four-base project" or independent substitution was mentioned before, the industry has not really formed a synergy, and it is difficult to produce good results. However, the current uncertainty in the development of the global epidemic may cause the price of "stuck neck" products to rise or even close the supply, which has become a catalyst and will accelerate the process of independent substitution.

"In the second stage, after 3 to 5 years of solid work from now on, we should be able to see greater results. On the whole, it should be over in 2025. In the third stage, the whole industry will spend another 5 to 10 years to do this. Strengthening key components and core components, this will mark our true entry into the ranks of automotive powers." Li Shengqi said.

"From a deep level, an important challenge for autonomous replacement of parts and components is whether the market accepts it or not, and companies dare not use it." It is understood that although some domestic parts and components companies have made breakthroughs in key technology areas, their industrialization has been slow. Li Shengqi has communicated with the technical teams of domestic vehicle companies more than once during his work to find out what hinders the vehicle companies from adopting core components developed by independent enterprises. "They are mainly concerned about four issues-whether the technology is mature, whether the product is reliable; whether the cost is competitive; whether the delivery time can be guaranteed; whether the quality problem can eliminate the risk. For these key problems, independent component suppliers cannot Avoidance. Only by effectively addressing these four concerns of vehicle companies can we truly open the door for China's auto parts companies to replace themselves." He believes that the epidemic has given the industry a deeper understanding of the "symbiosis and indivisibility" of the supply chain. Collaborative innovation and inclusive development must be carried out.

"It must be common progress, and multiple parties will work together to make up for shortcomings. The industry must also be prepared to share risks and allow initial imperfect and immature situations to appear. Such a consensus is very important." Li Shengqi called: "Independent substitution needs Stronger, deeper and more detailed strong foundation projects are supported, and strong foundation projects require the organic integration of the national innovation system and the industrial innovation system to promote each other. Therefore, under the guidance of the national innovation strategy, a systematic and planned Restoration and reorganization or rebuilding of industry-focused research institutions is an important part of building an innovative country."