In 2020, the new crown pneumonia epidemic-the fall of this "black swan" from the sky has once again faced a huge challenge to the global auto industry, which is already under downward pressure. Compared with vehicle companies, auto parts companies are facing even more shocks. Obviously, performance declines and even losses have become a common phenomenon.
Whether it was the disruption of the global auto parts supply chain in the first half of the year, or the chip shortage crisis in the second half of the year, it had a wide-ranging impact on the automotive industry. Fortunately, after entering the second half of the year, demand in the global auto market gradually recovered, and most auto parts companies slowly emerged from the trough. In addition, China, as the world’s largest new car market, has taken appropriate measures in terms of epidemic prevention and control, and realized the resumption of work and production across the country early, whether it is for domestic parts companies or multinational parts companies that do business in China. In other words, it is a strong support.
Although it has been suffering the impact of the epidemic, the parts industry has not "stopped", and the drama of corporate mergers and divestitures is still being staged. Especially after the epidemic has become normalized, industry reforms have brought greater sense of crisis to parts and components companies. Popular discussions in the industry on software-defined cars and the capital market’s pursuit of frontier trends such as electrification and intelligence have promoted parts and components companies. , Especially the traditional old-brand component companies have accelerated the pace of transformation. Smart cars are heating up, and technology companies and software companies have joined the competition, which has also accelerated the restructuring of the parts industry.
2020 is coming to an end. What marks has the parts industry left on us?
Keyword 1: The death of the supply chain
An epidemic has made the seemingly perfect automotive supply chain system riddled with in the stable years, especially during the first few months of the outbreak, the blockade measures in many countries and regions have caused a large-scale disruption of the global automotive supply chain This has become a common problem faced by enterprises. After the epidemic, the entire industry began to reflect on the safety of the automotive supply chain, and the interdependent global industrial chain was challenged by reconstruction.
At the same time, China's automobile supply chain is large but not strong, has shortcomings, and the "stuck neck" problem has been highlighted and enlarged in this epidemic. Studies have shown that at present, about 70% of my country's automobile production equipment is dependent on imports, about 80% of engine and gearbox production equipment is dependent on imports, and about 90% of automobile R&D, testing, and inspection equipment is dependent on imports, and almost 100% of special functional materials are imported. % Depends on imports. To this end, industry insiders call on the entire industry to supplement the chain, strengthen the chain, and the fixed chain, and use new energy technologies and intelligent technologies as breakthroughs.
Keywords 2: Software paid era
Since the beginning of this year, the industry’s discussion on “software-defined cars” has heated up. This has given software companies, as well as technology companies such as radar, chips, and high-precision maps, a good opportunity to quickly enter the game. At the same time, Volkswagen Group, Toyota, SAIC, Great Wall Motors, Automobile manufacturers such as Changan Automobile have also made efforts in the software field.
With the advent of the automotive software revolution, the incumbent supply chain system that lasted for a hundred years in the fuel era is being broken, the roles and relationships of integrators are also being reshaped, new business models are emerging, and the software payment era represented by OTA seems to be Coming quietly. Tesla pre-installed AutoPilot hardware for its models as early as 2016, and users can choose whether to open the software application according to their needs. Today, Tesla has obtained revenue through OTA upgrade software, which has become an important part of its business model. Daimler, Ford, etc. have also opened software payment channels through various methods. The traditional parts business model ushered in a huge impact.
Keyword 3: lack of "core" crisis
The fire of tight global chip supply has finally spread to the automotive industry. Recently, some auto companies have stopped production due to chip supply. For example, Volkswagen Group said not long ago that the uncertainty brought about by the epidemic has affected the supply of chips for some specific automotive electronic components, and the full recovery of the Chinese market has further promoted the growth of demand, making the situation more severe and leading to some Car production is at risk of interruption.
With the improvement of automobile intelligence and electrification, various chips are used in automobiles more and more, and their roles are becoming more and more important. Many companies have encountered shortages of chip inventories, supply shortages or price increases, etc. Happening. However, considering that the uncertainty of the epidemic still exists, chip manufacturers such as NXP, Texas Instruments, Infineon, Renesas and STMicroelectronics, which occupy half of the global automotive chip market, may be affected by the epidemic and may suspend production at any time. . The high-end core chips of domestic automobiles mainly rely on overseas imports. The chip shortage crisis once again reminds us that independent research and development of high-end core chips is imminent.
Key words 4: marginalization of multinational components
The advent of the "New Four Modernizations" is gradually changing the traditional auto parts industry pattern. Software and technology companies have become more and more important in the supply chain. As the core components of new energy vehicles, manufacturers of batteries, motors, and electronic control Also mastered more and more voice.
In the field of traditional fuel vehicles, component suppliers are always in a weak position relative to OEMs, but the field of new energy vehicles is different. OEMs are more willing to "bundle" battery manufacturers to obtain a stable battery supply. For example, CATL has become the leading supplier of Mercedes-Benz in the battery field, BYD and Toyota have established a joint venture company, Daimler has invested in Funeng Technology, and Volkswagen Group has acquired Guoxuan Hi-Tech, etc., all highlighting the battery manufacturers’ The importance is no wonder that many people in the industry choose the new energy vehicle field as the breakthrough point for the domestic parts industry.
In the field of intelligence, start-ups in Silicon Valley, Germany, Israel, China and other places are emerging in an endless stream. Well-known technology companies such as Google, Baidu, Apple, and Huawei have also joined the battle to compete with multinational component giants such as Bosch, Continental, and ZF. rice bowl".
Keyword 5: M&A, divestiture and upgrade
Facing the impact of the "new four modernizations", traditional parts companies are experiencing the largest and most difficult transformation and upgrading pain in history. Not long ago, Continental, Schaeffler and others successively announced their development strategies for the next few years, focusing on cutting-edge trends such as new energy, interconnection, autonomous driving, software, and digital solutions.
Industry mergers and divestitures continue. BorgWarner acquired Delphi Technology for US$3.3 billion, ZF acquired WABCO for US$7 billion, and Infineon also announced in April this year that it had completed the acquisition of semiconductor manufacturer Cypress at a cost of 9 billion euros. Some companies have chosen to reorganize, spin off their promising businesses and go public independently. LG Chem recently announced that it will split its battery business and make it a wholly-owned subsidiary of LG Chem to fully tap its market value.
Keywords 6: independent rise
When automakers generally rely on multinational parts companies, the global parts suspension caused by the epidemic has provided independent parts companies with good opportunities for development. At the same time, the promotion of the localization of Tesla parts has allowed Xusheng, Huayu Automobile, Fuyao Glass, Joyson Automotive Safety System, Ningbo Huaxiang and other independent parts companies to enter its supply chain to obtain considerable Performance.
In the field of commercial vehicles, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' estimates, thanks to the demand brought by the "new infrastructure" and the obsolete vehicle elimination policy, as well as strong measures such as over-limiting, the annual sales of domestic commercial vehicles are expected to exceed 5 million. , Creating a record high. With the good development of the commercial vehicle market, related component suppliers are also ushering in new development opportunities. Not only the development of diesel engine companies is improving, but the sales of commercial vehicle-related component companies such as transmissions, axles, lubricants, and automotive urea have all achieved "contrarian growth" in 2020. In addition, the implementation of some regulations has also ushered in a new period of growth for related components such as commercial vehicle disc brakes, air suspension markets, and trailer friction lining wear alarm systems.
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